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Bradman and the value of a start

Don Bradman dominates the sport of cricket like no other cricketer does, and it can be argued that Bradman dominates the sport of cricket like no other sportsperson does their sport. But that is for another day. There are many factors to Bradman’s success. Of course, genetics would come into play, sheer talent, and hand-eye coordination. But one thing, at least statistically, stands out.
His average of 99.94 suggests that he simply did twice as much as regular batsmen. However, it isn’t that simple. It is impossible to imagine such a Herculean figure failing, but he did. Take the 1930 Ashes, in which Bradman scored 974 runs for the series, the most ever. 7 innings. Scores of 131, 254, 334 and 232 in 4 of those innings. But scores of 1, 8 and 14 in the other 3. If we define 20 runs as a batsman getting a start, this means that while Bradman only got a start just over half the time, he certainly made it count. And herein lies the secret to Bradman’s dominance. His teammate Arthur Morris once said that, although he was vulnerable early on, his sheer concentration after making a start was incredible. He simply could not understand how a batsman could make 60 or 70 and get out.
I have chosen 5 main groups, and 3 further groups of scores. Scores of 0 (ducks), below 20, 20+ (a start), 50+, 100+, 150+, 200+ and 300+. I have chosen a range of batsmen, some just for their high averages, others who frequently score double and triple centuries, and some standard contenders for best since Bradman, as to investigate how Bradman’s evaluation of a start compares to a wide range of batsmen.
Here are their overall career stats:
Player Mat Inns NO Runs Ave HS 100 50 0
DG Bradman 52 80 10 6996 99.94 334 29 13 7
SPD Smith 73 131 16 7227 62.84 239 26 29 4
H Sutcliffe 54 84 9 4555 60.73 194 16 23 2
KF Barrington 82 131 15 6806 58.67 256 20 35 5
WR Hammond 85 140 16 7249 58.45 336* 22 24 4
GS Sobers 93 160 21 8032 57.78 365* 26 30 12
KC Sangakkara 134 233 17 12400 57.40 319 38 52 11
L Hutton 79 138 15 6971 56.67 364 19 33 5
SR Tendulkar 200 329 33 15921 53.78 248* 51 68 14
V Kohli 86 145 10 7240 53.62 254* 27 22 10
BC Lara 131 232 6 11953 52.88 400* 34 48 17
RT Ponting 168 287 29 13378 51.85 257 41 62 17
I chose Barrington, Sutcliffe and Sobers for their high average, Hammond, Sangakkara, Kohli and Lara for their tendency to make big, big hundreds and the others for their general importance on the batting pantheon.
And here are their innings split into the groupings:
Player Inns Inn0 InnSub20 Inn20+ Inn50+ Inn100+ Inn150+ Inn200+ Inn300+
DG Bradman 80 7 22 58 42 29 18 12 2
SPD Smith 131 4 45 86 55 26 8 3 0
H Sutcliffe 84 2 18 66 39 16 4 0 0
KF Barrington 131 5 44 87 55 20 4 1 0
WR Hammond 140 4 43 97 46 22 10 7 1
GS Sobers 160 12 56 104 56 26 11 2 1
KC Sangakkara 233 11 86 147 90 38 19 11 1
L Hutton 138 5 48 90 52 19 10 4 1
SR Tendulkar 329 14 136 193 119 51 20 6 0
V Kohli 145 10 60 85 49 27 10 7 0
BC Lara 232 17 97 135 82 34 19 9 2
RT Ponting 287 17 107 180 103 41 15 6 0
So, there are two ways we can look at this data, percentage distribution and conversion rates.
Percentage Distribution
With this we can ask the question, how often does Bradman get a duck or fail to get a start compared to other batsmen? How often does Bradman get a start? And then what does he do with that start?
First, percentage distribution of ducks (ranked by most frequent scorers of 0):
Player Inns Inn0 %0
DG Bradman 80 7 8.75%
GS Sobers 160 12 7.50%
BC Lara 232 17 7.33%
V Kohli 145 10 6.90%
RT Ponting 287 17 5.92%
KC Sangakkara 233 11 4.72%
SR Tendulkar 329 14 4.26%
KF Barrington 131 5 3.82%
L Hutton 138 5 3.62%
SPD Smith 131 4 3.05%
WR Hammond 140 4 2.86%
H Sutcliffe 84 2 2.38%
Aha! So, the supposed best batsmen of all time gets out for nought the most. Interesting. But this isn’t the whole story, what is the difference between getting 0 and 1? Not a whole lot.
So now, how often does Bradman fail to get a start? Percentage distribution of starts (ranked by most frequent starters):
Player Inns Inn20+ %20+
H Sutcliffe 84 66 78.57%
DG Bradman 80 58 72.50%
WR Hammond 140 97 69.29%
KF Barrington 131 87 66.51%
SPD Smith 131 86 65.65%
L Hutton 138 90 65.22%
GS Sobers 160 104 65.00%
KC Sangakkara 233 147 63.09%
RT Ponting 287 180 62.72%
SR Tendulkar 329 193 58.66%
V Kohli 145 85 58.62%
BC Lara 232 135 58.19%
Bradman gets a start most of the time, but not significantly more than others. In fact, he doesn’t even top the list. Now we know who fails and who succeeds, but crucial to Bradman’s success is what he does with the start.
Finally, percentage distribution of 50+, 100+, 150+, 200+ and 300+ (ranked by batting average as it would be too much to put these into separate tables):
Player Inns %50+ %100+ %150+ %200+ %300+
DG Bradman 80 52.50% 36.25% 22.50% 15.00% 2.50%
SPD Smith 131 41.98% 19.85% 6.11% 2.29% 0.00%
H Sutcliffe 84 46.43% 19.05% 4.76% 0.00% 0.00%
KF Barrington 131 41.98% 15.27% 3.05% 0.76% 0.00%
WR Hammond 140 32.86% 15.71% 7.14% 5.00% 0.71%
GS Sobers 160 35.00% 16.25% 6.88% 1.25% 0.63%
KC Sangakkara 233 38.63% 16.31% 8.15% 4.72% 0.43%
L Hutton 138 37.68% 13.76% 7.25% 2.90% 0.72%
SR Tendulkar 329 36.17% 15.50% 6.08% 1.82% 0.00%
V Kohli 145 33.79% 18.62% 6.90% 4.83% 0.00%
BC Lara 232 35.34% 14.66% 8.19% 3.88% 0.86%
RT Ponting 287 35.89% 14.29% 5.23% 2.09% 0.00%
So clearly, Bradman turns his starts into fifties more than others, but not at a Bradmanesque level, but his conversion rate and willingness to make 150s and beyond is where he stands above. The percentage distribution is one way to look at it. But there is another helpful way.
Conversion Rates
How often batsmen move from one grouping to the next:
Player 20->50 50->100 100->150 150->200 200->300
DG Bradman 72.41% 69.05% 62.07% 66.67% 16.67%
SPD Smith 63.95% 47.27% 30.77% 37.50% 0.00%
H Sutcliffe 59.09% 41.03% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00%
KF Barrington 63.22% 36.36% 20.00% 25.00% 0.00%
WR Hammond 47.42% 47.83% 45.45% 70% 14.29%
GS Sobers 53.85% 46.43% 42.31% 18.18% 50.00%
KC Sangakkara 61.22% 42.22% 50.00% 57.89% 9.09%
L Hutton 57.78% 36.54% 52.63% 40.00% 25.00%
SR Tendulkar 61.66% 42.86% 39.22% 30.00% 0.00%
V Kohli 57.65% 55.10% 37.04% 70.00% 0.00%
BC Lara 60.74% 41.46% 55.88% 47.37% 22.22%
RT Ponting 57.22% 39.81% 36.59% 40.00% 0.00%
How often a batsman turns a start into various groupings:
Player 20->50 20->100 20->150 20->200 20->300
DG Bradman 72.41% 50.00% 31.03% 20.69% 3.45%
SPD Smith 63.95% 30.23% 9.30% 3.49% 0.00%
H Sutcliffe 59.09% 24.24% 6.06% 0.00% 0.00%
KF Barrington 63.22% 22.99% 4.60% 1.15% 0.00%
WR Hammond 47.42% 22.68% 10.31% 7.22% 1.03%
GS Sobers 53.85% 25.00% 10.58% 1.92% 0.96%
KC Sangakkara 61.22% 25.85% 12.93% 7.48% 0.68%
L Hutton 57.78% 21.11% 11.11% 4.44% 1.11%
SR Tendulkar 61.66% 26.42% 10.36% 3.11% 0.00%
V Kohli 57.65% 31.76% 11.76% 8.24% 0.00%
BC Lara 60.74% 25.19% 14.07% 6.67% 1.48%
RT Ponting 57.22% 22.78% 8.33% 3.33% 0.00%
So, here is where Bradman truly pulls ahead of the lot. He got the same amount of starts as other top-class batsmen, but he truly made it count. There are also some noticeable patterns. Herbert Sutcliffe could have been truly great (not that he isn’t), but he often got more starts than Bradman, but he has only 4 scores of 150 or more, and 0 times past 200. Also evident is that Kohli often gets out early, but again makes it count, as well as Hammond. Cheers.
submitted by insideoutovercover to Cricket