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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 11th, 2019 (MLB)

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
With that being said, let’s get into it!
Early Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Marlins vs Reds - 1235pm
  • Pablo Lopez, RHP - 1-1, 10.1 IP, 6.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1 BB, 12 K
  • Sonny Gray, RHP - 0-2, 9.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K
  • Projected Total: 8.5 (CIN 4.8 - MIA 3.7)
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Hot. Temps climbing to 80 by the end of the game. Winds blowing in at 14 mph by the end of the game. Boost to pitchers.
A’s vs O’s - 1235pm
  • Aaron Brooks, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K
  • Dylan Bundy, RHP - 0-0, 7.1 IP, 7.36 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 7 BB, 9 K
  • Projected Total: 10 (A’s 5.7 - O’s 4.3)
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temp around 60. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to pitchers.
Indians vs Tigers - 110pm
  • Shane Bieber, RHP - 0-0, 8.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 2 BB, 11K
  • Spencer Turnbull, RHP - 0-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4 BB, 15 K
  • Projected Total: 8 (CLE 4.3 - DET 3.7)
  • Weather: Windy and Overcast. Temps in the mid 40s. Winds blowing in at 20mph. HUGE BOOST to pitchers.
Dodgers vs Cardinals - 115pm
  • Walker Buehler, RHP - 1-0, 8.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3 BB,4 K
  • Michael Wacha, RHP - 0-0, 11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 12 BB, 14 K
  • Projected Total: 8 (LAD 4.3 - STL 3.7)
  • Weather: Windy and Overcast and Hot. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out to LF at 22mph. HUGE BOOST to bats.
Mariners vs Royals - 115pm
  • Mike Leake, RHP - 2-0, 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K
  • Jorge Lopez, RHP - 0-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4 BB, 8 K
  • Projected Total: 10 (SEA 5.4 - KC 4.6)
  • Weather: Windy and Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to CF at 24mph. HUGE BOOST to bats.
Pitchers
Good Pitchers
Shane Bieber (9900, RHP) at DET - I’m not sure how high the ownership is going to be on the pitchers in this game, but it’s not going to be high enough. Bieber has gotten one start so far this year (that often happens to 5th starters). He went 6 IP, giving up 2 hits, 2 ER, 2 walks and 9 Ks. And that is totally in line with his norm. That was good for 25.1 DKP. I don’t think any other pitcher on this slate is going to get anywhere close to this. He also has himself a great matchup against a poor Tigers offense that strikes out a TON as it is. Don’t get cute here. No one is even close to Shane here. And the bats are too cheap not to pay for him.
Spencer Turnbull (7900, RHP) vs CLE - On the day of his first start, when he was 6000, I told you to play Turnbull as a GPP play. He did good. Not great, but good, giving up 3 ER in 5 IP while striking out 5. That was good enough for 11.1 DKP. Better than a lot of other pitchers at a lot cheaper. This was slightly worse than I had expected from him, though, so when his price fell 200 for his 2nd start I told you that you REALLY need to play him. He went 6 IP giving up 2 ER and striking out 10 in a matchup against a Royals team that strikes out the 6th fewest so far this season (7.7 K/game). That was good for 24.7 DKP. And his price only came up to 7900? Against this Indians team that strikes out 2nd most so far this season (against much worse pitchers than the worst team)? Sign me up. Like I said, I don’t know how much people are going to be on these 2 dudes, but it won’t be nearly enough for a 5 game slate.
Great Spots
Aaron Brooks (6900, RHP) at BAL - Aaron Brooks is a decent pitcher that will have his share of up and down days. Just look at his two starts. Last time out, against a tough HOU offense, he got shelled. In 5 IP, he gave up 5 ER on 9 hits and 1 walk and, as is par for the course against the Astros, only struck out one. His first start of the year, against a tougher BOS offense, he got through 6 IP allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk, 0 runs and 6 Ks. I wouldn’t necessarily expect 25 DKP out of him again, but he could certainly get 20 and, at that price, you can’t argue with that.
GPP Plays
Pablo Lopez (7100, RHP) at CIN - On a smaller slate, we are going to have to take some chances. Especially when it comes to a game like baseball. Take Lopez, a kid from the Marlins who has really great stuff, but hasn’t matured into it yet. His first start of the season, he gave up 3 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB. But, because Ks are King like I always say, he got 7 K in his 5.1 IP and, even with the runs and hits, he still managed 20.4 DKP. That’s totally usable. His next start, he did much worse - 4 ER on 7 hits (2 HR) and 1 BB. Most of the time if I tell you that, you would expect the pitcher to have a negative score. But, again, because Lopez picked up 5 K in 5 IP he managed to get 8.5 IP. If that’s going to be a bad start for him, and he can get you more than 20 with high K upside, you really just have to take the chance here. It’s just crazy that he’s the 3rd cheapest pitcher on this slate.
No Thanks
Walker Buehler (9700, RHP) at STL - Buehler is a fine real life pitcher. But he’s not someone I am going to want to take until he starts striking more people out. While, last season, over a much longer period of time, he amassed a K/9 of almost 10, so far over 2 games he only has 4 K in 8 IP. He has given up 2 more ER than Ks. While I certainly think he has the ability to have a great start most of the time, this is a REALLY tough Cardinals team. Especially when the wind is going to be blowing out so crazily and the Dodgers don’t let their pitchers go as deep as we would like, especially for 10k.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
A’s vs Dylan Bundy (RHP, @BAL) - As you saw last night, you can play whoever is going against the O’s. Especially when it’s a dynamic offense like the A’s. Dylan Bundy is barely a major league pitcher. He gives up a ton of HR and walks and hits and this is going to be a mess. Also, we get the double benefit of a horrible O’s bullpen, and the A’s getting 9 ABs no matter what.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Grossman (OF - 3800), Morales (1B - 3600), Profar (1B/2B - 3800), then start at the top and work down. These guys are underpriced.
Marlins vs Sonny Gray (RHP, @CIN) - Congratulations, Marlins. You have finally made it to the stacking opportunities category. Sonny Gray is a terrible pitcher who is way too expensive, and will be way too popular regardless of that fact. But, while this Marlins team isn’t fantastic, or good, or even mediocre, there are going to be some pitchers they profile well against. Sonny Gray is one of those - a reverse splits RHP against this specific lineup is going to have a hard time. If you want a contrarian stack no one will be on - take a few stabs here cause you’ll be able to play whoever else you want.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 2
Preferred Stack: Mini
Preferred Players: Alfaro (C - 3500), Anderson (3B - 3000), Castro (2B - 3600), Granderson (OF - 3800), Walker (1B/2B - 3500)
Cardinals vs Walker Buehler (RHP, LAD) - I know Buehler is a good pitcher. I know this is going to make him popular today. But he hasn’t looked like 2018 Buehler yet and, given the weather situation, I will take a chance that one of these powerful Cards can get the ball in air and it will carry out.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: DeJong (SS - 4000), Carpenter (3B - 4200), Goldschmidt (1B - 4600), Ozuna (OF - 3600), Molina (C - 3200), Wong (2B - 3800)
Dodgers vs Michael Wacha (RHP, @STL) - Like with Buehler, Wacha is a good pitcher. I mean, he’s not as good as Buehler, and I think he’s been pitching slightly over his head so far this season. But that being said, he’s not terrible. He’s not someone you see and say “oh fuck yeah. Stack me up, mateys!” (pirate version). But today, against a Dodgers team that has no problem hitting the ball in the air with power, with the winds blowing out at 22mph, I will definitely take way more of a chance on the offense getting some HRs for us than on Wacha shutting them down.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Pollock (OF - 4000), Turner (3B - 4100), Taylor (OF/SS - 3700), Hernandez (2B - 4400), Barnes (C - 4000), then start at the top and work down prioritizing any other RHBs that get the start today
Mariners vs Jorge Lopez (RHP, @KC) - As good as the STL game is for HRs, this one is even better. The wind is going to be steady at 25 mph. It will be blowing out to dead center, which means every bat is boosted. And these are 2 pitchers that give up a LOT of HR. Either one is going to be an underpriced and underutilized stack today, considering that there’s a ton of plays here. Note Lopez has shown reverse splits in his career so I would focus on RHB first.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Haniger (OF - 4400), Santana (OF - 4800), Mallex (OF - 4300), Bruce (1B/OF - 4500), Vogelbach (1B - 4700), Beckham (SS - 4100), Narvaez (C - 3800), Healy (1B/3B - 3900)
Royals vs Mike Leake (RHP, SEA) Everything I just said about Lopez applies here, so go read that if you didn’t. Or copy paste it. The only difference is that Leake doesn’t really show any splits. So you can just go nuts here.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work down.
One-Off Batters
Everyone that I would be interested was covered with a stack.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Mitch Haniger
Main Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 710pm
  • Aaron Sanchez, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5 BB, 11 K
  • Nathan Eovaldi, RHP - 0-0, 10.0 IP, 8.10 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 6 BB, 6 K
  • Projected Total: 9 (BOS 5.3 - TOR 3.7)
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the high 40s. Light Winds.
Mets vs Braves - 720pm
  • Steven Matz, LHP - 0-0, 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4 BB, 11 K
  • Kevin Gausman, RHP - 1-0, 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 2 BB, 7 K
  • Projected Total: 8.5 (ATL 4.4 - NYM 4.1)
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 75. Winds blowing in at 12mph. Boost to pitchers.
Pirates vs Cubs - 805pm
  • Joe Musgrove, RHP - 1-0, 9.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, 1 BB, 9 K
  • Jose Quintana, LHP - 0-1, 7.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 2.71 WHIP, 6 BB, 11 K
  • Projected Total: N/A
  • Weather: RAIN 60% chance of rain through the game, into the night. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to LF at 14 mph.
Padres vs Dbacks - 940pm
  • Pedro Avila, RHP - FIRST START
  • Zack Godley, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5 BB, 8 K
  • Projected Total: N/A
  • Weather: DOME
Rockies vs Giants - 945pm
  • Jon Gray, RHP - 0-2, 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K
  • Jeff Samardzija, RHP - 0-0, 9.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K
  • Projected Total: 7, Pick Em
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the mid 50s. Winds blowing out at 20mph. SF park is built to minimize wind impact.
Weather Games
Pirates vs Cubs - This game is going to have a chance of rain the entirety of the game. In fact, the chance for rain increases as the game goes on, which means that, if this game does get stopped it likely won’t get restarted. We are going to have to pay close attention to this one especially. Right now, Wrigley is one of the parks most affected by wind so, if this game plays with winds blowing out at 14 mph to LF you are going to want to load up on a bunch of RHB from this game. ESPECIALLY some of the RHB from the Pirates, since they would line up against a Quintana that just gave up 8 ER in 3 IP, including 3 HR, to the Brewers. While no one is going to mistake this Pirates team for the Brewers, a 14 mph wind blowing out of Wrigley would help. Make sure you lock in Marte and Cervelli on that side, and Bryant and Baez from the other side. The RH Pirates bats are especially cheap, letting you play whatever other stacks or pitchers you want.
Pitchers
Good Pitchers
Steven Matz (8100, LHP) at ATL - While I don’t think he’s an ace, I also know that Matz doesn’t get the respect he deserves. While he may not be the best pitcher on this slate, he is certainly a well above average pitcher and, if he isn’t the best, he’s 2nd best. Last start, against a tougher Nats offense (against LHP especially), he got up to 103 pitches, striking out 8 in 5 IP. Sure he walked 4, but he only gave up 4 hits and 0 runs. Plus, he kept the ball on the ground, with only 1 ball being hit in the air, including line drives, in 5 IP. He strikes people out, he limits damage, and he is going against a good Braves team, sure, but one he will be able to work through. I expect him to be exceedingly unpopular tonight and I will definitely be on the other side of that.
Jon Gray (9300, RHP) at SFG - The 2 most popular pitchers of the slate are going to be going against each other. If FD and Yahoo pricing is anything like the pricing on DK, everyone is either going to pay up for Gray and/or take the cheap play on Samardzija. Obviously FD is one pitcher and Yahoo is 2 like DK. But regardless, these dudes are in the best spots, going against the 2 worst offenses, in the best park for pitching. On top of that, these teams are both projected to get the lowest number of runs tonight. Gray is a fantastic pitcher who gets a load of Ks. He, unlike most other pitchers, doesn’t have home/road splits, so how well he does is based on if he has his stuff that day. Going against a shitty Giants lineup in a great park should be enough for Gray to more than get value for that price.
Great Spots
Nate Eovaldi (8600, RHP) vs TOR - I am worried about Eovaldi here. I can definitely understand if you decide you don’t want to take the chance here and either leave this alone, or stack against him. But Eovaldi is an incredible pitcher with incredible stuff that has a lot of trouble controlling it. We see this all the time. People think that, when a pitcher is wild, it means the ball is in the dirt, or over the catcher’s head. But there’s one important thing you need to realize that people don’t think about when you are wild, it means you can’t control where the ball goes. That means it could go in the dirt, it could go over the catcher’s head, or it could wind up as a meatball right over the plate. That’s why, with Eovaldi, you often see a start where he has no hit stuff, or where he walks a bunch of people and gives up a bunch of HRs. Look at his first 2 starts - 3 HR and 2 BB in the first. 1 HR and 4 BB in the 2nd. I think that, given the futility of this Blue Jays offense, I will take the chance that Eovaldi has one of those days where he can get it all together. While I don’t always give weight to this, the sample size is large enough that you should know he has serious home and away splits in that he is much worse on the road than at home. His first 2 starts were on the road and, today, he gets his first start of the season at home. I mean. It’s significant.
GPP Plays
Pedro Avila (7800, RHP) at ARI - I have told you in the past I am a sucker for a rookie making his first start. Sure, it doesn’t work out sometimes, but sometimes you get some crazy performances before teams have had a chance to scout and analyze someone. Well, as of right now, Avila has thrown one game in AA. Every other pitch he’s throw was in A ball or rookie ball. There is no way the DBacks are going to have adequate scouting on him and his success may come down to nerves. If he takes the big step on the big stage, we could be in for a great performance, especially since Avila has a career K/9 of around 11 in his 5 years in the minors so far. And he’s only 22. Man the Padres farm system is stacked. I wish he was priced like a rookie, but, regardless, on a 5 gamer you could do a lot worse for the price.
No Thanks
Jeff Samardzija (7500, RHP) vs COL - The Shark is who I project to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. He’s the 2nd cheapest pitcher, he used to strike people out, he used to be good, he’s in a good park, the Rockies have a low total, the Rockies are poor outside of Coors. There’s a lot the Shark has going for him. But what he doesn’t have going for him is the fact he’s just not fucking good. Like, he’s gone against bad offenses in good parks for a long time and that doesn’t stop him from giving up a fuckload of runs. Or going 5 IP with 2 K so, even though he had a good real life start, the 9 DKP he gets doesn’t really do anything but hurt us. And I am going to get the hell away from Samardzija today. If anything, feel free to take some of the Rockies bats.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Red Sox vs Aaron Sanchez (RHP, TOR) - It would look like Sanchez has had a good couple starts to the season. 11 K in 11 IP is great (and well above his usual numbers.) But he was going against weak Tigers and Indians offenses. And he still wound up walking 5 and giving up 8 hits in that stretch, meaning he’s not limiting baserunners, he’s just working out of trouble. Well, it’s a lot harder to work out of trouble against the Red Sox. It’s a lot harder to get a K/9 of 9, too.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
*Preferred Players: Benintendi (OF - 4600), Moreland (1B - 4500), Betts (OF - 5400), Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Devers (3B - 3900), whoever else you wanna fit in at the bottom. *
Mets vs Kevin Gausman (RHP, @ATL) - Fun fact about the Mets - they hit worse at home. They are the only team since Citi Field opened 11 years ago to do worse at home than on the road. But it’s consistent. One person I read made it sound like a kind of reverse Coors Field effect - where Citi Field just reduced production about as much as Coors Field enhances it. So now, with the Mets on the road, against Kevin Gausman after getting an unexpected extra day of rest, I will take another chance on this underrated offense. Especially with some of these righties against a reverse splits RHP in Gausman. I know the wind is blowing in, but some of these guys hit the ball hard enough it doesn’t matter.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Alonso (1B - 4800), Davis (3B - 4000), Ramos (C - 3900), Conforto (OF - 4700), Nimmo (OF - 3800), whoever else you want to play
Padres vs Zack Godley (RHP, @ARI) - If you haven’t done so, take a second and go back in this article and read what I wrote about Nate Eovaldi and then cut and paste it for Godley. He is a pitcher who has extreme problems with control. I mean, he was the major league leader in wild pitches last year after at 17. And he already has 2 this year. If Godley is on, he can be dangerous but, most of the time, he can’t put the pitch where he wants, which leaves him vulnerable to the HR. The Padres, going into Coors South, should be able to punish Godley if he has one of his normal, wild games. And once they get him out, they get the pleasure of the Dbacks bullpen.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Margot (OF - 3600), Hosmer (1B - 4000), Machado (3B - 4400), Renfroe (OF - 4400), Myers (1B/OF - 4600), Tatis (SS - 4000), Whoever plays Catcher
One-Off Batters
Rowdy Tellez (1B - 3700) - Tellez is a beefy dude with a lot of power. If Eovaldi leaves one over the plate, Tellez is going to hit it back to Canada.
Blackmon (OF - 4400) and Tapia (OF - 3600) - Samardzija has a problem with LHB and, while I don’t like the park, I will take a chance that Shark keeps on sucking and these underpriced dudes will be able to produce on this price and far less ownership than they deserve.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Manny Machado
Ok, that does it. Time to try and get some sleep! I love all of you and best of luck on both these fun slates tomorrow!!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports

bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 3rd (MLB)

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
With that being said, let’s get into it!
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
MIL (Peralta, RHP) vs CIN (Castillo, RHP) - 1235pm - O/U - 8.5, Pick Em
  • Clear, Nice Day! Beautiful baseball weather. Temps around 60. Light winds.
PHI (Nola, RHP) vs WAS (Sanchez, RHP) - 105pm - O/U - 7.5, PHI -129
  • Clear, Another beautiful baseball day. Temps climbing to 70. Winds varying in direction, but strong.
CWS (Rodon, LHP) vs CLE (Kluber, RHP) - 110pm - O/U - 7, CLE -195
  • Cool, Clear. Temps in the high 40s. Winds strong -15mph, blowing across the field. Bonus to pitchers.
COL (Marquez, RHP) vs TB (Morton, RHP) - 110pm - O/U - 7, TB -127
  • DOME
MIN (Gibson, RHP) vs KC (Bailey, RHP) - 115pm - O/U - 8.5, MIN -138
  • Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to LF at 13 mph through the game. Boost to RH bats.
ARI (Ray, LHP) vs SD (Lucchesi, LHP) - 340pm - O/U - 7.5, SD -130
  • San Diego weather!!
DET (Boyd, LHP) vs NYY (Loaisiga, RHP) - 405pm - O/U - 9.5, NYY - 185
  • Warm. Temps in the mid 60s. VERY WINDY - Winds blowing straight out at 20mph through the game. Huge, huge boost to bats.
BAL (Karns, RHP) vs TOR (Shoemaker, RHP) - 407pm - O/U - 8.5, TOR -160
  • DOME
NYM (deGrom, RHP) vs MIA (Richards, RHP) - 610pm - O/U - 7, NYM -210
  • DOME
STL (Mikolas, RHP) vs PIT (Taillion, RHP) - 705pm - O/U - 7.5, STL -120
  • Clear and Cool. Temps around 50. Wind lightening through the game. Should have no impact.
CHC (Lester, LHP) vs ATL (Teheran, RHP) - 720pm - O/U - 8.5, ATL -120
  • Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Light winds.
HOU (Cole, RHP) vs TEX (Minor, LHP) - 805pm - O/U - 9, HOU -168
  • Overcast and Warm. Temps around 65 through the game. HEAVY WINDS. Blowing IN the entire game at 17mph. Huge boost to Pitchers.
BOS (Eovaldi, RHP) vs OAK (Estrada, RHP) - 1007pm - O/U - 8.5, BOS -128
  • Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds. OAK weather.
SF (Holland, LHP) vs LAD (Stripling, RHP) - 1010pm - O/U - 7.5, LAD -205
  • Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 60s. Winds light. LA weather.
The Early Slate
A fun 5 game slate. Some good pitchers. Some good stacks. Should be a fun day. For those that are new to baseball, today are tomorrow are what’s called “getaway days.” That signifies an end of a series, where one or both of the teams are going to have to travel or “get away.” Because of that, the MLB schedule generally has only night games on Mondays and Tuesdays as teams start a series. On Wednesdays and Thursdays when series are finishing there will generally be 2 slates. One early slate and one late. Most getaway days will be like this. Then most Fridays are all night games. And weekends you’ve seen - a split day on Saturday, with most games on Sunday going off at 1 and 4 with one single Sunday night game. So let’s dive in to the first early slate on the first getaway day of this season!
Pitchers (in chronological order, basically)
Great Pitchers
Aaron Nola (10200, RHP) at WAS - Nola is in the category of “Potential Cy Young winners that you can play every day.” Let’s look at the numbers from last season. 33 GS, 212.1 IP, 224 K, 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.975 WHIP. Phenomenal stuff. He had 17 starts over 100 pitches and 16 under 100 pitches. 12% of fly balls against him were Infield Flies. I mean, dude had a 10.5 WAR. There are very few pitchers in the entire sport of baseball that are better than Aaron Nola. I can’t state that enough. Every single time he pitches, he is a viable play. I mean, sure Washington is a good team with a good lineup. But Nola is a beast and I feel like the public just doesn’t know that well enough yet. Plus, he gets a Nats lineup that will be missing Trea Turner due to a broken index finger, suffered from a HBP yesterday. His replacement is Wilmer Difo, which is like replacing a steak with a big mac - or, if you’re vegan, i’m sorry (i’m kidding, don’t send letters.)
German Marquez (9900, RHP) at TB - Marquez, like Nola, is a fantastic pitcher who gets ignored. It’s easy to ignore someone that pitches for the Rockies, but he is a legit ace. He had a K/9 of almost 11. He had an FIP of 3.40 as a starter that started predominantly in Coors. He is also someone with incredible home/away splits (something you really need to look at for Rockies players). He is decent at home, sure, but he is absolutely lights-out away from Coors. Now we get him in an extreme pitchers park in TB. Sign me up. What’s even more fun? He will be completely overlooked tomorrow with people going above and below him, price-wise.
Charlie Morton (8800, RHP) vs COL - This is one of those pitchers whose price and pedigree will make it so that people sleep on Marquez. But, to a degree, that’s ok. Cause Morton is a fucking awesome pitcher who can strike out a ton of people taking on a Rockies team that’s hitting worse than the BLUE JAYS lately. They can’t stop getting shut out. He doesn’t allow baserunners or runs. He has a K/9 of almost 11. And he’s way underpriced here. Don’t overthink this one, regardless of how chalky he is (and I expect him to be extremely chalky).
Good Pitchers, Bad Spots
Luis Castillo (8100, RHP) vs MIL - Castillo is a fantastic pitcher that can be as hit or miss as it gets. When he is on, he looks unhittable and will rack up double digit Ks. We saw that Castillo on opening day when, on a short leash, he struck out 8 in 5.2 IP. The thing with Castillo, though, is he is an extreme splits pitcher. That means he is absolutely dominant against RHB but has a lot of trouble with LHB. This is going to be a big problem against this MIL lineup that features a bunch of LH power from top to bottom. This is one of those situations (like almost anyone that would be in this category or the GPP category) where I advise, if doing MME, you get exposure to both Castillo AND the MIL Lefties.
GPP Plays
Freddy Peralta (7500, RHP) at CIN - I don’t love Peralta, but I do know enough about him to know that he is a dangerous pitcher with a ton of upside that is absolute murder on RHB. If you look at his first game, he came out of the gate really shaky, giving up a HR to Goldie right after walking Carpenter. He then hit the next hitter before getting Ozuna to ground into a fielder’s choice. Ozuna then came around on a double by Yadi Molina. Peralta lost Fowler on a 3-2 pitch before the pitching coach came out, settled Peralta down, and he struck out the next 2 batters. Over the next couple of innings, he gave up a single to Goldy, a double to Ozuna, another walk to Fowler, and then started off the 4th giving up a cheap knock to the opposing pitcher on an 0-2 count and another hit to Carpenter on an 0-2 count before being pulled. To me, knowing Peralta is someone that has trouble with LHB but is absolute murder on RHB, that seems like someone who might have had the first-start jitters and, after being unable to settle in, was given a quick hook. I would expect, against a much less imposing Reds lineup Peralta will have more success. There’s a couple tough Lefties there, sure (more on that later), but he should also be able to get himself more than a couple easy strikeouts and put up a high enough score to pay this salary today.
Anibal Sanchez (5900, RHP) vs PHI - This is not a play for the weak stomached among you. Sanchez is someone who had been coming off pretty terrible 2016 and 2017s. He was 7-13 with a 5.87 ERA in 2016 and 3-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 2017. Both years he was removed as a starter and placed in the bullpen. Last year, the Braves took a chance on him and, for the most part, he came through. He got a 7-6 record with 2.83 ERA in 24 starts, racking up 136.2 IP and 135 Ks. The deeper stats tell of someone who had a bit of a 2nd wind year, though, and not a complete renaissance. His FIP was 3.62, nearly a full point more than his ERA. This is in stark contrast to 16/17, when Sanchez’ FIP was significantly lower. This shows just how important defense is behind certain pitchers. Fortunately for Sanchez, he will be playing in front of one of the best Ds in the MLB, according to fangraphs projections. Though that would be different without Trea. His WHIP was 1.08 which is the lowest it’s ever been in his career. His H/9 was 7.0 which was the lowest in his career. We are going have to see how age and a completely new set of teammates and coaches treats Sanchez. He could be someone we regularly pick on (if he is 2016-17 Sanchez) or someone we can get for value (if he pitches like last year). This early in the season, I’m all for taking a chance on him at this price, especially since it’s only a 5 game slate. Also, playing him with any other pitcher would pretty much allow us to fit in any bat we wanted on this slate. Even if he has a mediocre game, that might give us enough points to take down a GPP.
Carlos Rodon (7000, LHP) at CLE - This is a play that is going to sneak under the radar because people don’t realize that CLE is a shell of the offense it was last year without Lindor at the top of the order. He will be back soon enough, I’m sure. And the pitching is more than enough to make up for any offensive deficiencies. But, that being said, they are real, real weak right now. And they get a kid in Rodon who was a top prospect with lightning stuff and huge upside that could never find enough control to make the jump to the next level. His first start was good, though, suffering a tough luck loss against a KC team that got a fantastic start from Keller that day. He still went 5.1 IP, only allowing 3 hits with 1 walk and getting 6 Ks. Another thing going for him? He’s a reverse splits pitcher who will only see 1 LHB in this Indians lineup. Like I said, this is a kid that will go overlooked today, but he has all the upside in the world. And he could make good on that against a poor Indians team.
**Batters **
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Brewers vs Castillo (RHP, @CIN) The Brewers get to travel to Great American Smallpark for a tough matchup against Castillo. Well a tough matchup for their RHB. For the LHB? Time to eat at low ownership!! Just last season, Castillo gave up an OPS of .587 to RHB and .882 to LHB. You have to go there if you can. Like I said earlier, this is a spot where, if you MME, you should have some shares of Castillo and some shares of MIL LHB.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB ONLY
Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5500), Shaw (1B/3B - 4300), Moustakas (2B - 4600), Grandal (C - 4100)
Phillies vs Sanchez (RHP, @WAS) - I did a full write up of Sanchez above. As I mentioned, he is coming off a good year preceded by 2 horrific years. If he pitches like the horrific Sanchez, Phillies are gonna score 10 runs in the first 3 innings. One thing to note - Sanchez shows reverse splits, so you can prioritize RHB and separate yourself from the field.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 5
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: If you are stacking this, you are going all in. So start at the top and work down. So - McCutchen (OF - 3800), Segura (SS - 3700), Bryce (OF - 4500), Hoskins (1B - 4100), Realmuto (C - 3800), etc..
Royals vs Gibson (RHP, MIN) - Kyle Gibson will finally be making his 1st start this season, after Berrios made his 2nd. That should tell you that this is a 31 year old we shouldn’t expect all too much out of (although he had a good year last year.) Last season, he had a FIP of 4.13, which was decent, but his WHIP of 1.302 was not. He gave up a ton of walks. So much so, if he had given up his career level of H/9, he would have had a WHIP of 1.44. He also gives up a decent amount of HR, meaning he is someone we are going to be able to stack against every time he pitches, for the most part. Today we get KC in the lucky spot. It’s worth noting a couple of things - 1st, before last season, when he had a K/9 of 8.2, he had never been over 6.9. I expect him to go back down under 7. All the better to help keep rallies going. Second, he is a normal splits pitcher, so make sure you prioritize LHB against him.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4900), Mondesi (SS - 5100), Soler (OF - 3900), O’Hearn (1B - 3900), Duda (1B - 4100), etc..
Twins vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This stack is going to be chalk and I don’t care. Bailey is entering his age 33 season and, if it’s anything like his age 32 season, he will be unemployed before long and Ian Kennedy will be next up to work his way towards unemployment. Bailey had an FIP of 5.55 last season with a WHIP of 1.636. He gave up 11.9 H/9 and a horrific 1.9 H9. He’s also equally bad against RHP and LHP, but extra horrible against LHP when it comes to slugging, so play every single LHP that you can against him.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Everyone. Including the ghost of Kirby Puckett. Kepler (OF - 4400), Polanco (SS - 4100), Cruz (OF - 5000), Rosario (OF - 4700), Cron (1B - 4500), etc..
One-Off Batters
Reds Lefties - Writing this at 1am, it’s hard to know exactly who is going to start. I assume that we will get Winkler (OF - 3700), Votto (1B - 4000), Barnhart (C - 3300), and Schebler (OF - 3900). It should be noted, though - Schebler is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against LHP. Also, Barnhart is a much better hitter as a Righty meaning he is also better against LHP. I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on any one of them (or a 2 or 3 person mini stack). Though, again, Peralta is a tough pitcher who can have a lights-out game if everything is going right.
Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4900) - Hoskins is my favorite batter on this slate. He is an extreme reverse splits hitter going against a reverse splits pitcher. If you’re doing that math at home, that means Hoskins is going to get you a HR today. EVEN IF YOU PLAY SANCHEZ he is cheap enough you can ALSO play Hoskins and still have a GPP winning lineup.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Rhys Hoskins
Main Slate
This is a lot more tricky than this afternoon. Very few pitching options. A TON of stacks we will want to play. It will be interesting to see how you all decide to attack it. I will focus on 2 pitchers and make lineups with them and a bunch of different stacks around them.
Pitchers (in chronological order, basically)
Great Pitchers
Jameson Taillon (7900, RHP) vs STL - I know he didn’t have the best start of his career against the Reds on Opening Day, but I stand by what I said about him that day - he is a legit ace and will be a top 10 pitcher for the Cy Young this year. He has talent. He has drive. And he’s getting better. A 3.20 ERA with a similarly impressive 3.46 FIP. A 1.178 WHIP. A K/9 of 8.4. A H9 of 0.9. 20 of his 32 starts were QS. SO-BB is 16.9%. I mean, I could just go on, but I’m just reading off amazing stats he put up. This isn’t the easiest lineup to face in the Cards, but apart from Carpenter and Goldie, he shouldn’t have much trouble getting through these guys while racking up the Ks.
Gerrit Cole (11400, RHP) at TEX - As I have said a bunch of times now, Cole is my pick for Cy Young in the AL this year. He is a great pitcher and getting greater. He doesn’t walk anyone. He barely gives up any hits. He strikes out a ton of people (Opening Day he got 10 K in 6 IP). If he goes longer today (or even if he doesn’t) we can almost guarantee double digit Ks. You can’t say that about a lot of people. If you are new to DFS, you may be shocked to hear that pitchers will reach the 13-14k range eventually. Cole is still laughably underpriced due to how early it is in the season. I don’t care if he’s 75% owned and you are playing GPP, if you are doing one lineup and you don’t play Cole on this slate you should just burn your money instead. If you do MME, feel free to not have in some lineups, obviously. But don’t get cute here.
No Thanks
Nate Eovaldi (9000, RHP) at OAK - While you might be surprised when looking at Nate Eovaldi and his electric, 100-mph stuff, he doesn’t strike people out. He has the lowest K/9 of anyone on the Red Sox staff, hovering around 8 K/9. Which isn’t terrible. He’s just overpriced for a road matchup against a dangerous OAK team. I spent a long time debating whether to put him as a GPP play or make a stack recommendation out of Oakland that I didn’t really like. Then I realized I can just not play anyone from here, minus a one off or two...
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Pirates vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) - On Opening Day, I recommended that you stack against Mikolas, even though it wouldn’t be popular to do so. I talked about how his success comes from control and some luck and, if he loses a little of either of that, he could have a terrible day. I mean, the dude only walked 25 people last season unintentionally. That’s insane. Well he’s already up to 1, on top of the 5 ER he gave up in 5 IP. Like I said, if he isn’t immaculate in his control, he is going to get hammered. So why not take the bet that someone won’t be perfect, when everyone else would be on him. Especially when people talk about his success and the story and the narrative and the control and ignore the fact he also gave up the most hits in the majors. I mean, come on. Learn to recognize a mirage quickly, folks, or prepare to get lost in the desert.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred/Reverse Splits RHB
Preferred Players: The following batters are LHB/SH or Reverse Splits RHB - Frazier (2B - 3900), Dickerson (OF - 4300), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Kang (3B/SS - 4200), Marte (OF - 4700), Gonzalez (SS - 3700)
Braves vs Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) - Another really sneaky stack here that I know that people won’t be on, cause they overrate Jon Lester and may not realize how annoying the Braves lineup is. In 2017, people worried about Lester and his 4.33 ERA. But, much like a lot of pitchers, this was somewhat bad luck as his FIP was 4.10. Not great, but still lower than his ERA. He also had a 9.0 K/9, though you could see a lot of the other peripheral stats worsening. In 2018, even though his ERA was 3.32, like i said before, his FIP was more than a run higher- 4.39. That’s really bad. His WHIP was 1.310, which is bad. This is reflected in his 8.6 H/9 and his 3.2 BB/9, the highest it had been since 2011. The real concerning stat, though, is his K/9 dropped from 9.0 to 7.4. The lowest since he was 24 years old in 2008. The AL East in 2008 is a lot different than last year’s NL Central, though. When a pitcher is striking out less and walking more, we can see the writing on the wall. Especially when he is 35. He is someone we can play occasionally (some lineups are horrible against lefties, some are the Marlins). But the high walks and the low Ks is something that worries me. Oh. Also- Lester can’t throw to first base (or has a lot of trouble doing it). So you can also prioritize people who can steal a base against him. Last thing- Lester is a lefty. He gave up a .250 BA to righties last year and a .279 BA to Lefties. He gave up a .696 OPS to Righties and a .878 OPS to Lefties. This is pretty extreme reverse splits and you need to focus on taking lefties against Lester when everyone else doesn’t realize this fact.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred
Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 4600), Inciarte (OF - 3900), Markakis (OF - 3700), Acuna (OF - 4800), Donaldson (3B - 4600), Albies (2B/SS - 4300), McCann (C - 3700)
Cubs vs Teheran (RHP, @ATL) - Much like Jon Lester, Teheran can’t get LHB out. While that mattered less on Opening Day against a predominantly RH Phillies lineup, it WILL matter a lot when the Cubs come to town. Teheran is an ace. But he’s like a diva ace. He’s very temperamental. He’ll show up, but he doesn’t always show up. And, with the built-in problems he has against LHB, I will have to take the chance of stacking here, though, at 7000, he is absolutely a GPP play given his upside. Just don’t expect anything out of him. And do not waste a single lineup spot on a -EV chance.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB greatly preferred
Preferred Players: Rizzo (1B - 4900), Zobrist (2B/OF - 3900), Schwarber (OF - 4600), Bryant (3B/OF - 4700), Baez (SS - 5300)
Astros vs Mike Minor (LHP, @TEX) - Oh boy. Not only do we get an Astros team that absolutely murders LHP, we get them against Mike Minor - someone who doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up more homers than the Fox Outlet during a clearance sale. This is probably going to be the chalkiest stack of the night. And it should be.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down - Springer (OF - 4900), Altuve (2B - 5200), Bregman (3B/SS - 5400), Brantley (OF - 4300), Correa (SS - 4800), etc...
Red Sox vs Marco Estrada (RHP, @OAK) - All these amazing road teams, guaranteed 9 times at bat, in great spots. It really is an embarrassment of riches for a 5 game slate. Estrada is a terrible pitcher. Sure he’ll have some great days. But the odds are thin one of those will come against this Red Sox team. I should also note, he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher, so stock up on RHB where everyone else will play the LHB. Also, and most importantly, Estrada gives up more homers than a Classics professor passing out her reading material for the semester.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred
Preferred Players: Betts (OF - 5500), Martinez (OF - 5100), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Vazquez (C - 3300), Nunez (2B/3B - 3800), Benintendi (OF - 4800), Devers (3B - 4100)
Dodgers vs Derek Holland (LHP, SF) - Another great offense going against a horrible pitcher. This time we get LAD vs Derek Holland, someone who is lucky to have a job. If this was a 24 team league, he would either be in AAA or retired. The Dodgers are dangerous against everyone, although more potent against RHP, which is a slight knock to them. Also, they are home where most of the other stacks are away, meaning we are going to miss out on a whole inning of AB from them, which could be a tiebreaker to consider. Still, they are going against Derek Holland who gives up more homers than Lieutenant Gigot (look it up).
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full - RHP preferred
Preferred Players: Hernandez (2B - 4200), Turner (3B - 4400), Pollock (OF - 4600), Freese (1B/3B - 3700), Seager (SS - 4400), Taylor (OF/SS - 4100), Barnes (C - 3900)
One-Off Batters
Kendrys Morales (1B - 3800), Grossman (OF - 3400), Profar (1B/2B - 3700) - While I wouldn’t take this as far as a 3 person stack, I wouldn’t mind playing 2 of these dudes tonight, especially Grossman at 3400 who should be batting leadoff. Eovaldi has a lot of trouble with LHB and these 3 are annoying enough that they can give him fits tonight. They are all also cheap as hell, which, honestly, we need desperately tonight given how expensive everything is.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: George Springer
Alright everyone! That does it for an awesome day of MLB. Now for a giant NBA slate! I better get to work. It’s only 2am after all! I’ll eat and sleep when I’m dead. Or in a couple of weeks :D.
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports