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Incorporating Rushing Value to Comparisons Between Mobile and Traditional QBs [OC]

tl;dr at the bottom
Now, more than ever, there are QBs who are able to add value onto their team using their legs, none more fitting than the reigning unanimous MVP Lamar Jackson, who had the greatest rushing season for a QB ever along with a great passing season. There are a few trains of thoughts that follow this, dependent on who the player actually is. For some players, the feeling is that their rushing ability is integral to their game and raises their total value as a QB (Lamar, Watson, Kyler, etc.). For some QBs, it's thought of as the only thing a QB is good at while they're a terrible passer (ala Trubisky). But unlike traditional passers where we could compare things like completion %, passer rating, ANY/A, and other stats, it gets hard to try and figure out what kind of value a QB really adds with his rushing. Josh Allen was probably a worse passer than Minshew for example, but does his rushing value make him better than Minshew? Let's try to add some objectivity to these comparisons.
I'll take a look below at modified versions of completion %, TD %, INT %, and Y/A. These numbers will now take into account rushing attempts and yardage, sack yardage, and total fumbles. More interestingly, I'll take a look at which quarterbacks have the biggest swing in these metrics when you take into account non-traditional passing production.
I'll also look at modified passing+rushing versions of current comprehensive passing stats like passer rating, ANY/A, and my own statistic, EC/T (explained more below), in the hope of gaining a more accurate look at the most statistically efficient QBs in the league last year.
There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks that started at least 8 games. Notable exclusions include Bridgewater, Haskins, and Mariota.
I will strictly be looking at efficiency statistics, save for an exercise in the end where I look at per game comprehensive metrics, but if you want to look at some of the raw numbers that I used to get the numbers below, feel free to take a look at this scratch sheet


This is one of the most important comprehensive stats to me, since fumbles are so commonly ignored in most comprehensive stats and turnover stats for QBs. Instead, only INTs and INT% are measured, when fumbles are just as deadly.
Player INT% INT% Rank TO% TO% Rank
Drew Brees 1.06 4 1.00 1
Aaron Rodgers 0.7 1 1.23 2
Patrick Mahomes 1.03 3 1.47 3
Tom Brady 1.31 7 1.80 4
Russell Wilson 0.97 2 2.03 5
Jacoby Brissett 1.34 8 2.45 6
Kyler Murray 2.21 19 2.49 7
Mitchell Trubisky 1.94 15 2.49 8
Lamar Jackson 1.5 10 2.50 9
Dak Prescott 1.85 13 2.53 10
Derek Carr 1.56 11 2.64 11
Matthew Stafford 1.72 12 3.04 12
Kirk Cousins 1.35 9 3.18 13
Carson Wentz 1.15 5 3.26 14
Matt Ryan 2.27 20 3.30 15
Gardner Minshew 1.28 6 3.33 16
Ryan Tannehill 2.1 18 3.33 17
Deshaun Watson 2.42 21 3.54 18
Andy Dalton 2.65 25 3.69 19
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.59 23 3.69 20
Josh Allen 1.95 16 3.78 21
Jared Goff 2.56 22 3.82 22
Case Keenum 2.02 17 4.06 23
Mason Rudolph 3.18 28 4.08 24
Jimmy Garoppolo 2.73 26 4.12 25
Joe Flacco 1.91 14 4.33 26
Philip Rivers 3.38 30 4.40 27
Baker Mayfield 3.93 31 4.49 28
Sam Darnold 2.95 27 4.73 29
Kyle Allen 3.27 29 5.11 30
Daniel Jones 2.61 24 5.54 31
Jameis Winston 4.79 32 5.74 32​
Note here that although Kyler's INT% wasn't great, he still has been one of the better QBs at securing the ball due to his low 5 fumbles in the season. Also, Brees rockets up to the 1st spot due to a surprising 0 fumbles the entire season.
On the other side, QBs like Minshew and Wentz have INT% that may lead you to believe that their ball security is closer to top notch, yet they still need to work out issues with fumbling.
Winston is obviously the lowest here, but it's kind of scary that when you add in fumbles, how close Daniel Jones gets to him, definitely a problem that he'll have to work on. Jimmy here also shows that he's the most turnover prone of all the "good QBs" last season, which is almost certainly his biggest flaw, he has 1-2 bad interception throws almost each game.
Shoutout to Brees who manages to have the lowest turnover rate, while having the 3rd highest general TD rate shown below.


Although I'm not the biggest fan of TDs used as single player production, it makes the most sense for QBs who have a much higher chance of scoring a TD if the offense in general scores. However, if you are looking at TDs, I think looking at both passing and rushing TDs combined is a no brainer.
Player TD% TD% Rank Gen TD% Gen TD% Rank
Ryan Tannehill 7.7 2 7.22 1
Lamar Jackson 9 1 7.17 2
Drew Brees 7.1 3 7.02 3
Matthew Stafford 6.5 4 5.78 4
Kirk Cousins 5.9 6 5.37 5
Russell Wilson 6 5 5.32 6
Deshaun Watson 5.3 9 5.31 7
Patrick Mahomes 5.4 8 5.15 8
Jimmy Garoppolo 5.7 7 5.02 9
Dak Prescott 5 12 4.92 10
Daniel Jones 5.2 11 4.80 11
Josh Allen 4.3 18 4.77 12
Jameis Winston 5.3 10 4.64 13
Case Keenum 4.5 16 4.43 14
Baker Mayfield 4.1 22 4.15 15
Jacoby Brissett 4 23 4.15 16
Aaron Rodgers 4.6 13 4.15 17
Sam Darnold 4.3 19 4.14 18
Mason Rudolph 4.6 14 4.08 19
Tom Brady 3.9 25 4.05 20
Derek Carr 4.1 21 4.04 21
Ryan Fitzpatrick 4 24 4.03 22
Carson Wentz 4.4 17 3.97 23
Matt Ryan 4.2 20 3.87 24
Gardner Minshew 4.5 15 3.68 25
Philip Rivers 3.9 26 3.61 26
Jared Goff 3.5 28 3.52 27
Kyler Murray 3.7 27 3.51 28
Kyle Allen 3.5 29 3.35 29
Andy Dalton 3 31 3.35 30
Mitchell Trubisky 3.3 30 3.16 31
Joe Flacco 2.3 32 2.00 32​
This is probably the most stable area in all the stats here, as rushing TDs are fairly rare. Josh Allen definitely sees the highest jump here, and is the only QB besides Dalton (whose TD numbers are just super low in general) to see a significant rise in his rate after including rushing TDs.
Funnily enough, Lamar actually sees the biggest drop off here, as his rushing TDs don't match up favorably to the insane amount of rush attempts he had for a QB. Given how absurd his passing touchdown efficiency was though, he still finds himself 2nd just a short distance from 1st.


I generally see yards as the most stable of the 4 major statistical areas here, just because of how comparatively fine-grained it is compared to TDs/INTs and has a much larger sample size of when players have an opportunity to get yards (and then unlike completion percentage isn't simplified to completion or no completion). This one takes some logic from PFR's NY/A (net yards per attempt that includes sack yards as part of the yards calculation), but also adds in rushing yards and rushing attempts as well.
Player Y/A Y/A Rank Yards/Touch Gen Y/A Rank
Patrick Mahomes 8.33 4 7.58 1
Ryan Tannehill 9.59 1 7.54 2
Dak Prescott 8.22 5 7.49 3
Matthew Stafford 8.59 2 7.38 4
Drew Brees 7.88 10 7.23 5
Lamar Jackson 7.8 12 7.05 6
Derek Carr 7.9 9 6.95 7
Philip Rivers 7.81 11 6.94 8
Jameis Winston 8.16 6 6.94 9
Kirk Cousins 8.11 7 6.88 10
Jimmy Garoppolo 8.36 3 6.82 11
Jared Goff 7.41 14 6.62 12
Russell Wilson 7.97 8 6.47 13
Deshaun Watson 7.78 13 6.45 14
Matt Ryan 7.25 15 6.16 15
Baker Mayfield 7.17 16 6.12 16
Gardner Minshew 6.96 19 6.02 17
Aaron Rodgers 7.03 17 5.99 18
Ryan Fitzpatrick 7.03 18 5.98 19
Tom Brady 6.62 27 5.86 20
Case Keenum 6.91 21 5.81 21
Kyler Murray 6.87 22 5.79 22
Carson Wentz 6.65 26 5.74 23
Jacoby Brissett 6.58 30 5.68 24
Sam Darnold 6.86 23 5.67 25
Andy Dalton 6.62 28 5.56 26
Daniel Jones 6.59 29 5.56 27
Josh Allen 6.7 25 5.53 28
Joe Flacco 6.95 20 5.49 29
Kyle Allen 6.79 24 5.35 30
Mason Rudolph 6.24 31 5.28 31
Mitchell Trubisky 6.08 32 5.14 32​
Mahomes didn't have the best regular season by his standards due to some injury issues earlier in the season, but the fact that he's still gets the most yards per touch of any QB in the NFL (looking at the regular season only) showcases his dominance. Conversely, Lamar is noticeably lower than I thought he'd be, especially since his rushing was incredibly efficient, but the addition of rushing numbers definitely increases his position among other QBs.
Jimmy has one of the biggest fall offs here, he takes some bad deep sacks and his rushing efficiency (1.6 YPC) was horrendous. Fantastic in raw passing yards per attempt but this gives a little more context.


Generally this is a pretty easy statistic to calculate for pure passing, but the issue arises on how this stat should be calculated if you start to include rushing. One of the main issues is that sometimes, rushing attempts for negative yardage for a QB count as rushes, and sometimes they count as sacks. Since this is an attempt to evaluate all of a QBs play rather than rushing, I am going to define a "general completion" as either a pass or a run that results in positive yardage. This is a bit different than your standard completion, as you can get completions with negative yardage. However, for the purposes of this exercise, I felt that negative rushes or sacks shouldn't be counted as completions, and therefore am adjusting the definition of pass completions to also be for positive yardage. That means anything for no yardage (no net gain by the offense and the same result as an incompletion) or anything for negative yardage (worse than an incompletion) now counts as an incompletion. Let's see how this modified general completion (and corresponding completion % over all passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks) compares to the standard completion %.
Note: Keep in mind that this changes the "meaning" behind completion %. It was originally used to have a very raw estimate of a passer's general accuracy. Now it's more seen as the chance that a QB, when given the ball, will gain yardage on the down.
Player Cmp% Cmp% Rank Gen Cmp% Gen Cmp% Rank
Drew Brees 74.34 1 67.17 1
Lamar Jackson 66.08 9 66.67 2
Derek Carr 70.37 2 63.80 3
Dak Prescott 65.1 13 62.15 4
Deshaun Watson 67.27 6 61.67 5
Patrick Mahomes 65.91 11 61.58 6
Jimmy Garoppolo 69.12 5 60.93 7
Kirk Cousins 69.14 4 60.64 8
Ryan Tannehill 70.28 3 60.28 9
Russell Wilson 66.09 8 60.25 10
Matt Ryan 66.23 7 59.17 11
Kyler Murray 64.39 15 59.15 12
Philip Rivers 65.99 10 58.87 13
Carson Wentz 63.92 17 58.78 14
Matthew Stafford 64.26 16 58.66 15
Jacoby Brissett 60.85 26 58.49 16
Jared Goff 62.94 19 57.71 17
Gardner Minshew 60.64 29 57.37 18
Mitchell Trubisky 63.18 18 56.98 19
Josh Allen 58.79 32 56.58 20
Jameis Winston 60.7 28 56.42 21
Case Keenum 64.78 14 56.09 22
Daniel Jones 61.87 25 55.54 23
Kyle Allen 61.96 22 55.38 24
Joe Flacco 65.27 12 55.33 25
Ryan Fitzpatrick 61.95 23 55.20 26
Aaron Rodgers 62.04 21 54.99 27
Tom Brady 60.85 27 54.65 28
Mason Rudolph 62.19 20 54.55 29
Sam Darnold 61.9 24 54.44 30
Andy Dalton 59.47 30 53.27 31
Baker Mayfield 59.36 31 52.99 32​
Rushing QBs get an obvious boost here as it's much easier to have a rush go for positive yardage than a pass. Josh Allen goes from the worst completion % to the 20th best chance of creating a positive play. Lamar's insane season gets some unique perspective here as he is the only QB that ran so much that even if you take out all his negative completions from his completion %, he had so many positive runs that his completion % goes up anyways.
It's also interesting to look at how many negative/nil plays Tannehill and Flacco must've had to have their general completion drop so much from their normal.

Comprehensive Metrics

The past few tables have focused more on the difference on traditional focused passing metrics when they factor in rushing, but now let's get to the more interesting tables. What happens when we take these various rushing/sack/fumble-adjusted numbers, and incorporate them into traditional comprehensive metrics like passer rating and ANY/A? Ideally, we can get an even better efficiency metric than what we get with the raw metrics themselves as we are able to capture a larger and more accurate picture of what the QB's production over the year was.
Additionally, I'll be using a custom stat that I developed in 2017 called EC/T (Expected Contribution per Touch). It was built to incorporate rushing and fumbling, adjusting fumbles for the average league rate of fumbles lost. It also uses a structure very similar to ANY/A, however I didn't really feel comfortable with the ratios they used for TDs/INTs compared to yards (TDs are worth 20 yards, INTs are worth -45), and thought there might be a more scientific way to equalify TDs and INTs to yards. I talk a little bit more about how this stat was developed here and took a blind test comparing this stat to other stats here where it was viewed as the best stat for QBs tied with passer rating, and better than ANY/A.
Player Passer Rating Rank Gen Passer Rating Rank ANY/A Rank Gen ANY/A Rank EC/T Rank
Drew Brees 116.3 2 118.7 1 8.33 3 8.19 1 79.4 1
Ryan Tannehill 117.5 1 105.2 4 8.52 1 7.49 3 76.5 2
Lamar Jackson 113.3 3 111.7 2 8.19 4 7.35 4 75.7 3
Patrick Mahomes 105.3 7 107.3 3 8.38 2 7.94 2 73.9 4
Matthew Stafford 106 6 99.6 7 8.15 5 7.17 6 70.4 5
Dak Prescott 99.7 10 102.2 5 7.84 6 7.34 5 68.5 6
Kirk Cousins 107.4 4 97.2 9 7.73 7 6.52 9 65.4 7
Russell Wilson 106.3 5 99.8 6 7.42 8 6.62 7 65.3 8
Derek Carr 100.8 9 97.9 8 7.25 9 6.57 8 61.2 9
Deshaun Watson 98 11 94.6 10 6.63 12 5.92 12 59.4 10
Jimmy Garoppolo 102 8 92.1 12 7.22 10 5.96 11 59.0 11
Aaron Rodgers 95.4 12 92.8 11 6.71 11 6.27 10 58.9 12
Tom Brady 88 19 89.3 14 6.24 17 5.86 13 55.0 13
Jacoby Brissett 88 18 89.4 13 6.06 20 5.41 17 52.9 14
Gardner Minshew 91.2 16 84.6 20 6.44 14 5.26 20 52.1 15
Jared Goff 86.5 22 84.8 19 6.46 13 5.61 15 52.0 16
Philip Rivers 88.5 17 85.0 18 6.32 15 5.69 14 51.8 17
Matt Ryan 92.1 14 87.5 16 6.08 19 5.45 16 51.7 18
Carson Wentz 93.1 13 85.9 17 6.26 16 5.07 22 51.4 19
Jameis Winston 84.3 26 80.8 25 6.15 18 5.28 19 51.0 20
Josh Allen 85.3 24 83.7 21 5.71 23 4.78 25 50.8 21
Case Keenum 91.3 15 82.1 24 5.94 21 4.87 24 50.1 22
Ryan Fitzpatrick 85.5 23 82.3 23 5.78 22 5.12 21 49.7 23
Kyler Murray 87.4 21 88.1 15 5.55 24 5.38 18 49.6 24
Baker Mayfield 78.8 31 78.1 26 5.29 27 4.93 23 46.6 25
Daniel Jones 87.7 20 75.7 30 5.38 26 4.02 30 45.9 26
Sam Darnold 84.3 27 76.4 29 5.5 25 4.37 28 44.9 27
Mitchell Trubisky 83 28 82.4 22 5.04 30 4.65 26 43.4 28
Andy Dalton 78.3 32 76.7 28 5.19 29 4.57 27 43.4 29
Mason Rudolph 82 29 77.4 27 5.02 31 4.26 29 42.2 30
Joe Flacco 85.1 25 70.9 32 5.29 28 3.94 31 37.9 31
Kyle Allen 80 30 71.6 31 4.76 32 3.71 32 37.9 32​
Drew Brees ends up coming out as the most efficient QB per touch (in all 3 general or gen metrics) in the 2019 season, which I think underlines that he was extremely underrated this year. Had a subpar playoff game, but otherwise was truly dominant over the regular season. Had he not missed those 6 games, I think he would be an unquestioned top 3 QB last season.
We have the next tier of Tannehill/LamaMahomes (all ranked 2-4 in the 3 gen stats) which is expected for the next most efficient QBs last season. Passer rating especially is where Mahomes wasn't accurately measured last season, but these adjustments put him in the tier that he deserves to be in.
The next tier of Prescott, Stafford, Wilson, Cousins, and Carr (all ranked 5-9 in the 3 gen stats) has two surprises, one lower than expected (Wilson) and one higher than expected (Carr). Wilson experienced a drop in play over the second half of the season, partially because of injuries to the team, but partially also due to a drop in play. Although he had started off the season at MVP pace, the second half of the season definitely pushed him out from there. Carr on the other hand is making a case for being underrated. Although he definitely "dinked and dunked" his way here, if it provides consistent efficient gains on offense, than I think that's still a positive for Carr. One of the most underrated QBs last season imo, and definitely does not deserve to be talked about as a QB that will be let go potentially next season.
Following that you have the Watson/Rodgers/Garoppolo tier. Watson's efficiency seems to actually slip when you start looking at his rushing numbers a bit more, in addition to his sack and fumble numbers. His raw numbers are actually in this same range, his perception was just higher for last season. Rodgers and Garoppolo land about expected, arguably but not a lock for the top 10.
The tiers start getting more muddied after this, but next up you have Brady/Brissett/Rivers/Goff/Ryan. The most shocking one here is Brissett, who actually looks surprisingly efficient compared to his perception as one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Reminds me of a Tyrod situation where he won't win you games because of his inability to put up starting QB volume, but per touch he's good enough that he won't lose you games either, definitely one of the best, if not the best backups in the league. Brady is also another good look here, traditional stats had him lower here, but a deeper look at things like his sack and fumble numbers boost up his efficiency relative to other QBs. Although he did fall off this year, it's not as much as some think. Ryan sticks out as someone who definitely seems to have had a down year, but wasn't really noticed as having it as much as QBs like Rivers and Ryan. Especially given his weapons, this seems less ok.
Next tier is Minshew/Murray/Wentz, Wentz definitely had a down year last season which is fairly well acknowledged. Question remains if he can climb back up the ladder with hopefully better weapons this year. Minshew and Murray once again show how close they were as QBs last year, even with rushing added to consideration.
Now we start getting to the bad QBs with Winston/Josh Allen/Fitzpatrick/Keenum/Mayfield/Trubisky. These are all fairly expected, no large surprises here.
Next tier has some surprises with Darnold/Dalton/Daniel/Rudolph. This is a bad area for Darnold and Daniel to be in, fumbles seem to be a large part of this for Daniel Jones especially. Given how the other 2 QBs here are not seen as starters anymore, the other 2 really need to step back up this next season, or it may be Darnold's last year as a starting QB. Daniel still has more time to improve, but another season like this would not be a good indicator for his future trend.
Final tier are the two most dogshit QBs, Kyle Allen and Joe Flacco. No surprises.

Comprehensive Per Game Metrics

Final exercise I wanted to do here was to look at per game comprehensive stats, which is something that we don't usually look at. We always look at ANY/A, but why not ANY/G? Additionally, for my custom stat EC/T, we can always adjust it to EC/G. Let's take a look at which QBs are higher when you look at their per game contributions and see how volume helps them.
Note: Games here aren't necessarily games played or games started, but actually look at what percentage of a game a QB played if they played a partial game. If they started a game but got injured after a quarter, they don't get a game counted. If they didn't start a game, but played the last 3 quarters, it'll count as a game.
Player Games Gen ANY/G Rank EC/G Rank
Drew Brees 10 326.6 2 31.7 1
Patrick Mahomes 13 332.5 1 30.9 2
Lamar Jackson 15 294.1 5 30.3 3
Matthew Stafford 8 294.8 4 28.9 4
Dak Prescott 16 307.7 3 28.7 5
Ryan Tannehill 10 269.5 6 27.5 6
Russell Wilson 16 264.3 7 26.1 7
Deshaun Watson 15 245.2 10 24.6 8
Matt Ryan 15 253.5 9 24.0 9
Aaron Rodgers 16 255.1 8 24.0 10
Jameis Winston 16 241.7 12 23.3 11
Tom Brady 16 244.1 11 22.9 12
Gardner Minshew 13 230.5 16 22.8 13
Ryan Fitzpatrick 13 234.8 14 22.8 14
Carson Wentz 16 223.6 19 22.7 15
Jared Goff 16 238.6 13 22.1 16
Kirk Cousins 15 218.7 20 21.9 17
Derek Carr 16 233.6 15 21.7 18
Kyler Murray 16 229.5 17 21.2 19
Daniel Jones 12 181.8 26 20.7 20
Philip Rivers 16 226.4 18 20.6 21
Jimmy Garoppolo 16 208.0 22 20.6 22
Andy Dalton 13 209.8 21 19.9 23
Josh Allen 16 181.7 27 19.3 24
Jacoby Brissett 15 191.1 24 18.7 25
Mitchell Trubisky 14 200.1 23 18.7 26
Baker Mayfield 16 185.5 25 17.5 27
Sam Darnold 13 170.3 28 17.5 28
Case Keenum 8 164.9 29 17.0 29
Kyle Allen 13 162.0 30 16.5 30
Mason Rudolph 9 150.9 31 15.0 31
Joe Flacco 8 147.9 32 14.2 32​
The fact that Brees is still top 2 in both stats is once again insane, Brees is still playing some of his best football even if his arm isn't the same as in his prime.
We see Matt Ryan make a large jump here, showing that part of his perception of not having a down year may come from the fact that he still put up great volume. It's a good discussion on whether or not that means he had as big of a down year as his lowered efficiency indicates. Winston also jumps up here, expected given his insane volume, as do Fitzpatrick and Daniel Jones.
On the other hand, we see Carr take a tumble here, which shows that despite his great efficiency, he wasn't asked to put up as much volume as other top QBs, definitely puts his efficiency into more context. The same is seen for Garoppolo and Cousins, probably expected for all these QBs.


I would check out the comprehensive passing metrics section for a look at what rushing/fumble/sack-adjusted comprehensive metrics look like, and for a refreshed perspective on the performance of QBs last season. Please feel free to let me know if these stats are shit if your QB is too low, or praise my groundbreaking work if this has put your QB higher than usual.
Anyways, hope this was a fun read for anyone who decided to go through it, and that this gave a good extra perspective on what happens when rushing contributions are added into passing stats. Please give me any feedback or thoughts you have on this, thank you!
submitted by Maad-Dog to nfl


NFL 2020 season award predictions

Now a week away from the season officially being kicked off with Texans @ Chiefs, I’m ready to commit to all these predictions. As I have done for several years now, I am going to forecast all the major season awards, such as league MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and others, before I get into my playoff picks in a few days.



  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Lamar Jackson
  3. Dak Prescott

Let’s not get this wrong – this is a quarterback award. We have seen other positions get attention in this discussion, but in the end, Adrian Peterson has been the only non-QB since 2007 to take home the trophy.
Not much surprise at the top here. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the league and if we get a full 16 games out of him again, I expect the numbers to match the amount of highlight plays we see from him on a weekly basis. Other than losing a starting guard – which might have been replaced with equal player – and swapping their starting running back with a stud first-round pick, nothing about the offense has changed. Tyreek Hill is still the most dangerous receiver in the league, Travis Kelce is a nightmare to match up with, Sammy Watkins took a pay-cut to stay with the Super Bowl champs, KC miraculously found a way to bring back Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman is bound to make a jump, after how productive he was on very limited opportunites (41 targets, 26 catches, 538 yards and 6 TDs). I think having Clyde Edwards-Helaire to give this high-flying attack a physical presence and picking up some unlikely first downs will only help Mahomes. Maybe most important, the Chiefs did not lose offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, who was thought to get more head coach interviews, and he will continue to build creative and aggressive gameplans with Andy Reid.
The second choice her isn’t overly surprising either. The reigning, unanimous MVP Lamar Jackson is coming off a phenomenal season, in which he broke the all-time mark for rushing yards by a quarterback (1206) and at the same time his touchdown pass percentage (9.0) was the highest since Y.A. Tittle in 1963. There are several other highly impressive numbers, like having more total touchdowns than Sam Koch had punts and all those stats being amassed with the season finale being sat out, but none of that captures how electric his performance was. This offseason, Baltimore added one of the top-flight backs in the draft in J.K. Dobbins to give that record-setting rushing attack another boost, made some excellent wide receiver picks in the later rounds of the draft and most importantly, Marquise Brown is coming his second season without that foot injury, that bothered him all of last season. I expect the speedster to open up the offense a little more and create a special connection with his QB. Without a full offseason to prepare for this unique Greg Roman offense, the Ravens led by Lamar will be tough to stop once again and since I have them earning the AFC’s number one seed once again, I expect Action Jackson to be right there in that race for MVP honors with Mahomes for most of the season.
The one candidate from NFC here is Dak Prescott. He already put up career-highs in completions (388), passing yards (4902) and touchdowns (30) last season, but I expect those to go even higher. When you look at the Cowboys last season, offensively they put up some big numbers, but those didn’t always result in wins. Whether that was about going away from the run game at some points, their stars not really coming through in the big games or the defense not making any game-changing plays. I expect Ezekiel Elliott to trim down and have that extra gear again in 2020, the defense will be changed up a bit with some of the veterans they brought in and they now have maybe the best trio of receivers in the league. With Amari Cooper being a master route-runner, Michael Gallup working the sideline and now rookie Ceedee Lamb giving them a beast at the catch-point but even more so after the catch, Dallas has all the ingredients to have an explosive aerial attack. Combine that with one of the best O-lines still, play-action being more effective and the coaches allowing Dak to throw on first down more hopefully could make this squad pretty scary. Being a little more effective even and leading his team to an 11-5 record (as I predicted), while trying to prove he deserves that franchise QB contract, should put Dak in this MVP race.

Just missed: Josh Allen & Kyler Murray

Offensive Player of the Year:


  1. Saquon Barkley
  2. Lamar Jackson
  3. Kyler Murray

I’m always hesitant to list candidates for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, since this overlaps a lot and I still don’t really get how the Most Valuable Player isn’t also the Offensive or Defensive Player of the Year, but since the first is almost a pure QB award, here are a couple of other names.
To me the most talented and best running back in the NFL is Saquon Barkley. How explosive he is, the power he has to break tackles, yet at the same time being so elusive in the open field and having that break-away speed at 230 pounds is special. I thought he Saquon was the most impressive back in the league as a rookie already and last season he lost some of that shine due to being banged up for about half the year and the spectacular season Christian McCaffrey had. With Joe Judge as the new head coach, having that New England mindset of running the ball at a high rate, and new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett focusing on the ground game heavily himself, I see no reason why Saquon shouldn’t touch the ball 350-400 times. Big Blue a pretty good trio of receivers to spread the field and open up room on the inside, the offensive line should be upgraded with fourth overall pick Andrew Thomas coming in and with Daniel Jones taking snaps from the shotgun, he is a threat to pull the ball, therefore binding one of the backside defenders. The only concern for me here is that I don’t expect the G-Men to win a lot of games and them having to go away from the run game too early, but Saquon is a master at making something happen after catching a check-down as well.
The second guy here is Lamar, who I just talked about in the MVP discussion. His dynamic ability as a runner puts him a little higher than Mahomes in this discussion.
And then I expect Kyler Murray to take another big step coming into his sophomore campaign. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year immediately transformed one of the most boring offenses league-wide into an exciting attack, despite not having a lot of weapons around him for most of the season. Kyler was responsible for 24 touchdowns and finished second behind only Lamar with 544 rushing yards on the season. He did all that despite having guys charge at him constantly (48 sacks) and his best receiver still being a 35-year old Larry Fitzgerald. This offseason Arizona traded for an elite wideout in DeAndre Hopkins to go with a healthy Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella coming into year two, Fitzy still being there and a guy I really liked in last year’s draft in Hakeem Butler having his first season after being out for all of 2019. Running back Kenyan Drake will also play a full 16 games for the Cards, after how dynamic he looked like over the second half of last year, coming over from Miami. The O-line should at least be marginally improved, while I like a lot of the things they do on defense. If Kyler can lead this team to one of the final playoff spots in the NFC and him probably putting up big numbers in the process, I think he will get some attention for it.

Just missed: Patrick Mahomes & George Kittle

Defensive Player of the Year:


  1. Myles Garrett
  2. Darius Leonard
  3. Chandler Jones

To be named DPOY, you usually have to put up some big numbers and make those impact plays that people remember. Last season was pretty unique, since Stephon Gilmore was a true shutdown corner, but also tied for lead-league in picks (6) and scored a couple of touchdowns. Usually this award favors pass-rushers and ball-hawking safeties.
After getting his big contract and being on a team that is ready to finally make some noise, I expect Myles Garrett to have a big season. What happened in week 11 against the Steelers last year wasn’t pretty and there is no need to discuss it any longer, but I believe while Garrett learned his lesson, he is also ready to come back with a vengeance. Over the ten games he played last season, the former number one overall pick recorded ten sacks and 18 more hits on the QB, to along with eleven tackles for loss and a league-best 18.5% disruption rate (pressures and sacks divided by pass-rush attempts). So even then, he would have been in the discussion for DPOY at least with a full season of production and I expect him to be even more disruptive, playing for a better team. Garrett has really come along as a pass-rush technician, after relying on his athleticism and a couple of moves early on in his career. He just had a lot of time in the lab to work on his craft and might have a couple of new tricks to show for it. I like what is going on in the secondary, the other guys on the D-line should be healthy to start this season and maybe most important, I expect the Browns to be in a lot more positive game-script situations. The offense has so much potential and I like Kevin Stefanski to sustain drives with a run-oriented approach. That allows Garrett to stay fresh and as teams have to get more pass-reliant, number 95 can just tee off and get after opposing passers at a higher rate.
The other young player I like in this discussion is Darius Leonard. Now that Luke Kuechly has retired, I think Bobby Wagner has the crown for the best inside linebacker in the game, but among the two or three other, names that could surpass him in that discussion in the near future, is this guy. “The Maniac” has made plays all over the field ever since coming into the league. In 28 career games, Leonard has put together 284 tackles (182 solo), 12 sacks, seven INTs and another 15 passes deflected. That was playing form a defense that didn’t have a lot of disruptors up front and had been suffering through injuries in the secondary. This offseason the Colts traded for 49ers team MVP DeForest Buckner, who to me has entrenched himself as a top 50 overall player in the league and is one of the very best at creating chaos for the opposition. Leonard will feast more from those opportunites to clean up or shoot through a gap that opens up as the offensive line can’t get off those double-teams quickly enough to put hands on him. Kemoko Turay could be a breakout candidate off the edge back healthy and I find myself coming back to Indy’s schedule, which is made up with half the teams finished in the bottom-third in terms of scoring offense.
The final candidate here is somebody who has not gotten the credit he deserves over his last four years in the desert. Over that stretch, Chandler Jones leads the league in total sacks (60), is tied for the most fumbles forced (17) and has been near the top in QB pressures every single season. What makes all those numbers even more impressive is the fact that he has done it for a losing franchise for the most part. That has led to limited opportunities to rush the passer overall, but also has resulted in limited obvious passing situations, where Jones was able to just get off the ball, with the other team trying to catch up. The Cardinals are bound to improve from a bottom-ten rush defense with added beef up front and a freakish rookie on the second level (Isaiah Simmons), which should already give their top pass-rusher more opportunities in general, but with the offense ready to take another step with Kyler Murray coming into year two and upgrading their receiving corp, this team should have the lead more often and make those sacks or strips or games scream louder than they have been before. I believe Jones will once again be in the race for the Deacon Jones award (most sacks in a season) and get more love with the added attention for Arizona.

Just missed: Fred Warner & T.J. Watt

Offensive Rookie of the Year:


  1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  2. Jonathan Taylor
  3. Joe Burrow

Last year I thought the voters made a mistake by voting Kyler Murray OROY, even with how fun he was to watch, because of the body of work Josh Jacobs put together. So I was a little hesitant to put two more running backs up here, with Dak Prescott taking home the trophy over his teammate Ezekiel Elliott, but historically speaking, RBs tend to be favorites.
And for a long time I had Clyde Edwards-Helaire only second in this discussion, but now that Damien Williams has opted out of the 2020 season, I just can’t get away from the first-round pick out of LSU. The Chiefs could addressed a rather thin secondary or even traded up a few spots to grab one of those top-tier linebackers in the draft, but instead they sat there at 32 and invested more into that explosive offense with a guy they have compared favorably to Brian Westbrook. CEH was a bowling ball in college, who constantly ran through defenders and picked up crucial first downs, by willing himself across that line, no matter who was in his way. He is great at running duo, showing patience to allow things to get set up and having the short-area quickness to avoid charging defenders. As I mentioned before, I expect him to give Kansas City a physical presence to complement that high-flying passing attack. However, what makes the difference between my number two choice and this young man is what he can do in the pass game. Clyde was used a lot as a coverage indicator off motions and not only ran downfield routes of the backfield but also lined up out wide quite a bit and ultimately caught 55 passes for 453 yards. Even just on those little check-downs, he was a load to bring down for defenders and to have that as a fall-back plan if none of those speedster is open downfield, is scary.
With that being said, I feel pretty good about my second option here as well. When the Colts selected Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the draft, I immediately put it on my Instagram story and said “JT behind that Colts O-line. I’m calling for Offensive Rookie of the Year right now”. I also talked about him recently, when I broke down some of the favorite targets in fantasy drafts, since I think his ceiling is enormous. With almost 6200 rushing yards and 50 TDs in three years at Wisconsin, no other rookie has a resume as impressive as Taylor, and even though I think Marlon Mack is a really solid starter, he doesn’t have that brute strength or home-run ability of this kid. While I don’t see staying on the field on third downs a whole lot and the big concern here are fumbles, which could be difference between taking home this award and splitting touches with Mack, I just think with his ability behind what I think is the best offensive line in football, I can’t overlook the potential. Now that they brought in Michael Pittman Jr. with that other second-round pick as that big-bodied X receiver, Parris Campbell showing flashes in practice after being banged up for most of his rookie year and T.Y. Hilton hopefully back healthy, they could be a much more productive group overall.
And since the voters do prefer quarterbacks a lot of times, I had to put the first overall pick up there. Joe Burrow had an all-time great season his senior year at LSU, completing 76.3 percent of his passes for almost 5700 yards and 60 touchdowns. The Bengals let Andy Dalton walk this offseason, leaving no doubt that the rookie quarterback will take over the reigns right away. And while the O-line still needs some work to be done, their collection of skill position players is really impressive actually, if A.J. Green is back to 100 percent. Tyler Boyd is still there as a dependable big slot, Auden Tate showed some signs last season, John Ross should at least give them a field-stretcher hopefully and Tee Higgins is awesome at the point of the catch, which meshes really well with Burrow’s precise ball-placement. Combine that with maybe the most underrated two-way back in the game named Joe Mixon and a duo of tight-ends Cincy likes quite a bit and there are all the ingredients for a much more wide open offense. I still have to see how much Zac Taylor caters the offense to what Burrow did at LSU, but especially with a shortened offseason program, I expect that to happen largely.

Just missed: Jalen Reagor & Jerry Jeudy

Defensive Rookie of the Year:


  1. Chase Young
  2. Patrick Queen
  3. Antoine Winfield Jr.

No surprise at the top here. I once had a different name up there at one point, but how can you go against a guy, who was my highest-graded defensive prospect since Von Miller? Chase Young was playing out of his mind in 2019, when he broke Ohio State’s all-time sack record (16.5), recorded 21 TFLs and seven forced fumbles in 12 games. While he doesn’t quite have the technical advancement at this stage of his football career as the Bosa brothers, he has picked up a lot of their famous hand-swipes, but at the same time he has better speed and bend around the corner than those guys. Even though he isn’t in the most pass-happy division in the NFL necessarily, I just love what Washington has put together around him in years prior. Having the two Bama boys in Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne inside, to go with Montez Sweat potentially breaking out in year two and being able to learn from a highly productive veteran in Ryan Kerrigan should Young to work a lot of one-on-one matchups and be put in some great situations. With Ron Rivera coming in and bringing Jack Del Rio with him, this defense will rely heavily on the front-four getting home and playing coverage behind it, which should lead to most of the sacks being split between the D-line only.
The second candidate was another top-20 prospect for me, but for Patrick Queen it might be even more about the situation he finds himself in. The Baltimore Ravens obviously have a rich history of inside linebackers and a big reason those guys have had the success they have shown, has been a lot about the bodies up front. While did they lose Michael Pierce in free agency, this allows Brandon Williams to move back to his natural fit at the nose and with Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe being rocks against the run as well, that should allow Queen to stay clean and shoot through gaps for those TFLs or chase guys down to the edge if they are forced to bounce outside. In the pass game, the former LSU backer is still learning the intricacies of coverage play, but he has tremendous range to limit yards after the catch, already does a pretty good job reading the eyes of the quarterback and the fluid hips to turn and run with RBs & TEs. What might have put Queen over some of these other candidates is the scheme Baltimore runs, with a lot of heavy pressure looks on third downs, where their inside backers line up in the A-gaps, are brought on cross-blitzes or delayed rushes. With over 100 tackles, double-digits for loss, five plus sacks and a couple of picks maybe, he should get some recognition.
I originally had another safety up here, but with the uncertainty about Grant Delpit’s injury for the Browns, I chose one of my favorite guys I watched for the draft – Antoine Winfield Jr. He may be undersized and there are guys who have a little more of that top-end speed, but boy, this kid can play. Winfield missed almost two full seasons with Minnesota, but when he was out on the field, he was a true play-maker for the Gophers. He was down in the box, not showing any hesitation to crash into bigger bodies in run defense, he manned up against tight-ends, blitzed from the slot, covered deep half and middle. I expect him to be that same versatile piece in the secondary for defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, similar to what he had in Arizona with the Honeybadger. With monsters in the middle to stop the run on early downs, guys who can crash off the edge against the pass, two super-rangy linebackers and a young secondary that is starting to come together, Winfield’s smarts and ball-hawking skills will allow him to make some big plays. I expect this to be a top-ten defense in the NFL and this rookie safety could be a guy whose name we hear called repeatedly.

Just missed: Isaiah Simmons & Zack Baun

Comeback Player of the Year:


  1. Ben Roethlisberger
  2. Matthew Stafford
  3. Rob Gronkowski

This award is always a bit of a question mark, in terms of what qualifies as a “comeback season”. We have seen players returning from major injury take home the honors, some just returning to glory after being stuck in the mud for a few years and at times even be out of the year for a season.
After suffering a seemingly harmless elbow injury early on in week two of last season, Ben Roethlisberger had to have surgery on it and was out for the entire year because of it. While it feels like an entirety by now, in 2018 Big Ben led the league with over 5100 yards, finished fifth with 34 passing TDs and was the biggest reason their offense finished top-six in both yards and points gained. The biggest difference between that group and what they have now is the departure of Antonio Brown, who at that point was still one the truly elite receivers in football. Last season Juju Smith-Schuster was fighting through some nicks and bruises and a lot of that had to do with who threw him the ball for the final 14+ games, but he still has to prove he is that clear-cut number one option. With that being said, I like the different weapons at Ben’s disposal and how those can alleviate pressure from Juju. I already predicted Diontae Johnson to have a breakout season, James Washington showed some signs in 2019, Eric Ebron can be that move TE to create mismatches and second-round pick Chase Claypool has enormous potential, if you don’t ask him to do too much right away. I still think they have a top ten O-line and a nice mix of backs, while the defense might be the best from top to bottom, to give the ball back to the offense.
I had a line for Matt Stafford a few backs, which still makes me chuckle a little, when I said Stafford finally broke the back that he had carried the Lions franchise on for years now. For most of his career, Detroit did not have any running attack to speak of (only one 1000-yard rusher in 11 seasons – Reggie Bush in 2013), the offensive line has been a question mark on several occasions and he only had one year, where the defense actually played at a really high level (didn’t finished above 13th in points scored outside of that). I feel as good about the surrounding pieces on offense for Stafford as I have ever done, with a nice trio of receivers, investments into the O-line and a dynamic duo of backs to take some pressure off the QB, with a focus on the ground game. Last season in his second year in Darrell Bevell’s system, Stafford had the looks of an MVP candidate over the first half of the season and he might be even more comfortable in it for 2020. While I’m not a huge believer in Matt Patricia, he should finally have all the pieces to run that New England defense and not put that attack in catch-up mode as much. To my surprise, Stafford had played all 16 games for eight straight years before 2019, but he has been fighting through injuries routinely. Now back to 100 percent, finally just as a part of the team and not the savior, I like him to light up defenses.
My third choice is the only player of this group that was out of the league last season. Rob Gronkowski seems to be back to his 2018 form and maybe that year off was the perfect thing for him, after he looked pretty broken down, as that year went along (even if he still made big plays for his team obviously). When we think back to his last season with New England, he was really the only dependable target outside of Julian Edelman. This offseason he joined what last season was the number one passing offense, with the premiere duo of receivers in the game, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which made improvements on the offensive line and added his old friend Tom Brady. If his body is back to full strength and opposing defenses need to keep two safeties high, leaving the seams open for the Gronkster or have him one-on-one against a linebacker, watch out! My only real concern for the new Bucs tight-end, is the fact they have three legitimate options at the tight-end position to take away snaps, but I think we will see heavy 12 personnel from Bruce Arians’ troops. I picked Gronk over a couple of other guys I believe could be more productive, because I think the narrative will lead to a lot of votes.

Just missed: A.J. Green & Bradley Chubb

Coach of the Year:


  1. Sean Payton
  2. John Harbaugh
  3. Sean McDermott

For this final award, I went with the two head coaches that I believe will call the shots for the number one-seeded teams in either conference and another still rising coach, who has taken a team that had been out of the playoffs for more than 20 years to a couple of a appearances already, in position to take another step forward.
It has been 14 years since Sean Payton last was named Coach of the Year, with some great regular season teams since then, but I think this could be his best one since winning the Super Bowl a decade ago. With a master of his craft like Payton, you know he will always find a way to keep his team motivated and he will once again call one of the top offenses in the NFL. It’s Drew Brees final run at another championship, they have elite offensive line and skill position play, the defense has a great mix of productive veterans and young guys and as I have discussed before – the Saints will be in cap hell after the season. Another interesting dynamic here, is that Payton already had COVID-19 and understands the measurements necessary to prevent it from spreading. So I’m interested to see if that can give him any advantage over other coaches. As far as this award goes, I ultimately went with Payton over the head-man of the AFC’s number on seed because of what kind of gauntlet the NFC will once again be and them emerging from it will be highly impressive.
However, I could absolutely see John Harbaugh as a repeat-candidate to earn recognition, since I project the Ravens to earn the AFC’s top seed once again at 13-3. It might be a tougher task, with the Steelers getting Big Ben back, the Browns bound to improve simply because of how talented that roster is and the Bengals not looking like they will first overall again in the 2021 draft. With that being said, I think Baltimore has an even better all-around team than what they had when they had an NFL-best record of 14-2 and there should be no missing motivation after an ugly exit in the Divisional Round at home against the Titans. For Harbaugh in particular, his willingness to embrace analytics in terms of in-game decisions and how he puts equal focus on all three phases of the game, as a former special teams coordinator, with excellent teachers in place of the three coordinators positions, this should be a very well-rounded team. With revenge wins over Kansas City and Tennessee on the slate, they won’t leave anything desired on the table and you can check out my playoff predictions, to see if I think they can carry that momentum into January.
What head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have done over their three plus years together in Buffalo has been truly outstanding. They have changed around the culture and brought in players that fit their system to a tee. I still have the Bills on an upward trajectory and at 11-5, with the AFC’s number three seed earned, I hope McDermott gets the recognition he deserves. With improvement from quarterback Josh Allen now that he has that true number one guy in Stefon Diggs, who will open up the offense with his ability to stretch the field, potentially a strong one-two punch of backs and a defense that seems to be in the right position every single week, because of the game-specific coaching, this is a team that you just don’t want to face. This is their time to shine and since I project them to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995(!), I believe the voters will show their head coach some love, as they finally get to host a home playoff game in blistering January cold once again. Too bad that wild crowd will probably not be allowed to be there when they at least see their team run out onto that field to kick off the new year.

Just missed: Frank Reich & Mike McCarthy

If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/09/03/predicting-the-entire-2020-nfl-season/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-MxnrfYiZE
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